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For three decades, the African National Congress appeared politically untouchable. But after losing its national majority in South Africa’s 2024 election, the ANC entered a period of decline that may be impossible to reverse.
In this video, I examine three forces that could ultimately bring about the complete collapse of the ANC: the Government of National Unity exposing voters to alternative governance, the declining power of the liberation narrative among younger South Africans, and the rapid growth of civil society organisations that increasingly perform functions traditionally expected of government.
The performance of GNU ministers such as Pieter Groenewald, the DA’s response to John Steenhuisen, and the contrast between provincial coalitions in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal may be changing how voters judge political parties. Instead of rewarding historical liberation credentials, a younger generation increasingly appears to be judging the ANC according to service delivery, corruption, unemployment, crime and economic opportunity.
We also examine the rise of AfriForum, March and March, community-led service delivery and other civil movements. If South Africans increasingly believe that communities can perform the government’s responsibilities more effectively than the state, what happens to the ANC’s political legitimacy?
Finally, the video considers growing interest in Patrice Motsepe among ANC voters. Could Motsepe transform the ANC into a more competent, business-friendly and economically pragmatic party—or would the ANC’s internal factions and patronage networks make meaningful reform impossible?
The ANC may still possess considerable political machinery, but South Africa’s changing population, alternative models of governance and expanding civil society could leave the former liberation movement with nowhere left to turn.
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