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A fascinating new South African poll has revealed a result that few people expected: EFF supporters appear more willing to leave South Africa for the United States than white South Africans.
But the poll may reveal something far more important than attitudes towards refugee status. It could help explain how South Africans make political decisions—and why voters who support the ANC, EFF and MK Party may not necessarily share the ideological beliefs promoted by those parties.
In this video, I examine the relationship between education, ideological consistency and voting behaviour. While voters in countries such as the United States are often divided along clear ideological lines, South African politics appears to be driven more heavily by material circumstances, economic insecurity and group identity.
I also revisit Afrobarometer research on land ownership and expropriation, including attitudes towards willing-buyer, willing-seller policies and whether farms housing labour tenants should be expropriated. These findings complicate the claim that most South Africans hold deeply communist views.
The refugee poll presents another surprising contrast. Only 7% of white respondents indicated that they would like to leave, compared with approximately 20% of black respondents and 25% of EFF supporters. Why are white South Africans more likely to remain, despite crime, financial pressure and emigration among younger generations?
Could cultural attachment, family ties and a deep sense of belonging explain these results? More importantly, does the willingness of ANC, EFF and MK supporters to leave suggest that their votes are motivated less by ideology and more by their search for economic security and hope for a better future?
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