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The ANC’s grip on South Africa is weakening—but could the party eventually disappear from national government altogether?
In this video, I examine the history of the ANC’s National Democratic Revolution (NDR), the ideological strategy adopted after 1994, and the reasons I believe that strategy ultimately failed. From Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki to Jacob Zuma, state capture and Cyril Ramaphosa, we trace how corruption, factionalism and failed economic policies undermined both the ANC and South Africa.
I also look ahead to the upcoming local government elections and consider what losing Johannesburg, Tshwane, eThekwini and other major metros could mean for the ANC, the Government of National Unity and Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership. Could Paul Mashatile become the ANC’s next leader? Will the party respond to declining support by embracing even more radical economic transformation? And could new political movements reshape South African politics?
The ANC fell below 50% nationally in the 2024 election. With unemployment, economic stagnation, internal divisions and voter dissatisfaction continuing to mount, the party now faces an existential political crisis.
How many years do you give the ANC—and what do you believe South Africa’s political future will look like? Let me know in the comments.
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