Two-time defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz faces in-form, big-serving American, Taylor Fritz, in 2025’s first semi-final match. Here’s how we think it’ll pan out.
Alcaraz started slowly but he’s in his groove now
Spanish superstar Carlos Alcaraz is still just 22 but he’s the man to beat right now and gunning for a stunning third consecutive Wimbledon crown. He dispatched Briton Cameron Norrie in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 in the quarter-finals to sound an ominous warning to the rest of the draw. In earlier rounds, Alcaraz dropped at least a set in each of his matches; his first round match against retiring veteran Fabio Fognini went to five. Alcaraz is already appearing in his eighth grand slam semi, he’s also won five slams from five final appearances. How do you beat a man with a 100% strike-rate in the biggest encounters? Fritz will have to stop Carlitos’ current 23-match winning streak too, three more wins and Alcaraz will equal Jannik Sinner’s mark of 26 consecutive wins posted between 2024 and 2025. Alcaraz has also won 19 matches on the bounce at Wimbledon, dispelling myths that grass is his weakest surface. He’s truly an all-court and all-surface player already. On grass, Alcaraz 34 wins, four titles and only three defeats.
Taylor Fritz is elite, but can he crack Carlisot at Wimbledon?
Since a third round exit in 2021 at Wimbledon, Fritz is arguably the most improved player on the ATP tour. He reached the 2024 US Open final, losing in straight sets to Jannik Sinner, and has also made grass his second home, winning four titles in six years at Eastbourne in 2019, 2022, 2024 and 2025.
"I'm really happy with how I've turned my career around."
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 8, 2025
After losing in the #Wimbledon QF twice, Taylor Fritz is now in his first semi-final at SW19 👏 pic.twitter.com/x5OZbeNrGu
Alcaraz dominates the head-to-head
Carlos Alcaraz leads Fritz 2-0 (4-0 in sets). Fritz has a 1-16 record against the current top-tier elite trio of Alcaraz, Sinner, and Novak Djokovic, a stark reminder of the gap that still exists. These are the kinds of challenges Fritz, or any player aspiring to win Grand Slams, must overcome in order to elevate their careers to the next level.
The serve might be decisive
Fritz has served 95 aces to Alcaraz’s 62 thus far at the Championships. Alcaraz has landed an astounding 71 per cent of his returns successfully, and has won 31 per cent of his return games. Fritz has landed 65 per cent of his returns, and won 20 per cent of his return games. The huge American will need to serve, and play, out of his skin here.
Verdict
Grass is Fritz’s best chance to upset the odds here, but Alcaraz will have too much for him here and reach a third final on the trot.
Pick: Alcaraz to win in four sets
