Why does the ANC still hold a major advantage over the DA despite years of political decline? New polling data points to one voter group playing a crucial role.
Hermann Pretorius breaks down six years of polling and reveals a striking gender divide in South African voting patterns. Among male voters, the ANC and DA sit close to each other. Among female voters, the ANC holds a substantial lead.
The discussion goes beyond the headline numbers. Pretorius explains how household security, service delivery and socioeconomic stability help explain the ANC’s female voter advantage, while warning the DA against superficial attempts to target women.
The interview also examines illegal immigration, right wing populism, corruption, issue-based voting and the importance of understanding female-led households.
Chapters:
00:00 The six-year polling picture
00:17 The ANC’s female voter advantage
01:17 Why male voters are more dispersed
01:48 Why female voters matter
02:04 The third major finding
02:09 Which parties attract women
02:37 The ANC’s unique advantage
02:50 What the data does not prove
03:01 Household security and voting
03:20 Service delivery and female-led households
03:52 Why priorities matter
04:23 How the ANC maintains its lead
04:46 Advice for the DA
05:01 Why the DA should not pander
05:18 Illegal immigration and right-wing populism
06:09 How the DA should approach female voters
06:45 Connecting corruption to household issues
07:05 The danger of identity-based targeting
07:33 Winning voters through substantive issues
07:55 What the polling cannot tell us
08:07 How the poll measures voters
08:52 Female-led households in South Africa
09:23 Why household issues matter
09:40 Voting and marital status
10:12 The unanswered questions
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